Costing Budget 2019 Measures

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Costing Budget 2019 Measures.pdf

Summary

In September 2017 the Parliament of Canada Act was revised to expand the PBO’s mandate to include estimating the financial cost of election campaign proposals.

In preparation for the upcoming 2019 federal general election, PBO used the Budget 2019 as an opportunity to assess its existing capacity to cost a variety of policy initiatives within a limited period. This exercise relied, as much as possible, on the templates and processes described in PBO’s framework for estimating the financial cost of election campaign proposals.

The Budget 2019 contained numerous new or extended fiscal initiatives. PBO assessed the suitability of the measures for independent costing. These were classified as one of two types:

1) Measures of total spending envelopes, for which the government commits to allocating a specific amount of resources for a certain policy; or,

2) Measures for which the ultimate cost may vary based on various assumptions.

The second type of measures were considered for the Budget 2019 costing exercise, consistent with PBO’s electoral costing framework.

PBO identified 16 Budget 2019 measures that were relevant to cost. We were ultimately able to prepare estimates for 11 of these within the time period provided (see table below). The independent cost estimates cover a six-year projection period starting in the 2018-19 fiscal year.

$ millions	2018-2019	2019-2020	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023	2023-2024
Canada Training Credit	-	30	155	178	196	211
Employment Insurance Training Support Benefit	-	-37	-101	10	19	28
Increase in Home Buyers Plan Withdrawal Limit	-	15	15	16	16	16
First-time Home Buyers Incentive	-	3.4	20.6	39.2	39.9	39.9
Mutual Fund: Allocation to Redeemers	-	-19	-75	-69	-57	-47
Personal Income Tax Credit for Digital Subscribers		9	38	39	40	41
Refundable Labour Tax Credit	27	108	109	110	111	112
Tax-exempt Qualified Donee for Registered Journalism Organizations	-	7	21	5	5	5
Making Canada Student Loans More Accessible	-	-1	2	4	4	4
Making Canada Student Loans More Affordable	-	123	371	472	490	508
Expanding the Rental Construction Financing Initiative	-	7	17	46	81	134

23 April 2018

Costing Budget 2018 Measures

On September 21, 2017, the Parliament of Canada Act was revised to expand the PBO’s mandate to include estimating the financial cost of election campaign proposals. In preparation of the upcoming 2019 federal general election, PBO has independently estimated the fiscal impact of 10 revenue and spending measures announced in Budget 2018.

This report reflects the PBO’s active response to this mandate expansion, containing independent cost estimates that were prepared and published in less than 60 days.
17 January 2019

Costing 2018 Fall Economic Statement and Off-Cycle Measures

In preparation of the upcoming 2019 federal general election, PBO used the 2018 Fall Economic Statement as an opportunity to assess its existing capacity to cost a variety of policy initiatives within a short period of time.