The total annual estimated gross cost of the defined GBI would range between $76.0 billion and $79.5 billion for the period 2018-2023. The guaranteed income for disability would range between $3.2 billion and $3.5 billion.
PBO forecasts that more than 7.5 million people would benefit from the basic cost of GBI. Thus, on a per capita basis, the annual cost would range between $9,421 and $10,169 for the period 2018-2023.
The actual federal support for low-income Canadians and vulnerable groups defined by our benchmark model is about $32.0 billion. If this amount were deducted from the total estimated GBI cost of $76.0 billion in 2018-2019, the net cost of a federally implemented GBI would be $44.0 billion. However, the GBI could take the form of a combined federal-provincial basic income system managed by an intergovernmental fiscal arrangement. This would replace some provincial transfers for low-income individuals and families, including many non-refundable and refundable tax credits, thereby reducing its net cost.