Category : National Finance

An Assessment of the Government’s Fiscal Outlook

PBO’s assessment is that the Government’s outlook for the economy and federal budget over the medium term is optimistic. Based on forecast comparisons and forecast revisions, PBO believes that there is downside risk to the Government’s medium-term outlook for the budgetary balance in the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Why Does the Government Lapse Money and Why Does It Matter?

In 2013-14, the Government’s actual spending was $9.3 billion lower than budgeted; it corresponded
to lower-than-estimated spending on programs such as veterans’ benefits, national defence and capital 
infrastructure projects.

Budget 2015 anticipates that the amount of unspent money will fall over the next five years. New PBO
analysis suggests that this may not be the case. If so, it is expected that this would result in lower-than-
projected program spending, creating additional fiscal flexibility.

Updated Analysis of Performance Budgeting During Recent Fiscal Consolidation

This report examines the influence of program performance on budgetary changes during the recent period of fiscal consolidation, from 2010-11 to 2013-14   [PDF]

An update of the Budget 2015 fiscal outlook

The Honourable Scott Brison (Kings‐Hants) and Mr. Nathan Cullen (Skeena‐Bulkley Valley) have submitted requests that the PBO provide an update of the Government’s fiscal projections in Budget 2015 using the Bank of Canada’s outlook in its July Monetary Policy Report. PBO will update its own Economic and Fiscal Outlook in the fall.     [PDF]

Update of PBO’s Tax-Free Savings Account Analysis

TFSA fiscal and distributional effects were examined by the PBO in a February 2015 report. This analysis updates those past PBO estimates for proposed Budget 2015 changes.    [PDF]

Pre-budget Outlook

Projections presented in this report include only fiscal measures that have been announced prior to Budget 2015. PBO will update its economic and fiscal projections for new measures in the 2015 budget and provide related analysis in a future report. Projections presented in this report are based on data up to and including April 10, 2015.    [PDF]